Detroit Tigers Preseason Evaluation

It is almost time for pitchers and catchers to start reporting to camp once again. This time of year is always exciting, but the process seems so drawn out. The spring camps are fun (and I certainly suggest you make your way to the Grapefruit or Cactus league at some point in your life if you have not), but they make the anticipation for opening day overwhelming. We are still roughly 50 days away from opening day, but since the Tigers are in a unique position (which I will expound on momentarily) I figured I would do a preseason review of the team.

The Tigers find themselves in a rather non-dramatic preseason. Although this is a time when most clubs hammer out rotations and bench spots, there is very little to be determined with the Tigers roster. There are perhaps 2 bench seats up for grabs and MAYBE one spot in the bullpen. The biggest question in my mind is who is going to bat second in the lineup. The Tigers do not have a player that really jumps out at that position, and the lineup may change due to the already injured Carlos Guillen. However, the team is pretty much all set on paper, so let's examine what we have (to my best guess):

Projected Opening Day Batting Order

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Will Rhymes 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez RF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH (Also C and 1B as needed)
6. Ryan Raburn LF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Brandon Inge* 3B
9. Alex Avila* C

*I could easily see these two being switched in the order since they are headed in opposite directions career-wise.

Projected Opening Day Bench

Ramon Santiago INF
Don Kelly INF (Kelly will be replaced by Guillen on the roster when he returns. Guillen will assume Rhymes' spot in the lineup but will be getting frequent rest.)
Brennan Boesch OF
Casper Wells** OF

**The players on the outside looking in for the last bench spot are Clete Thomas (OF), Danny Worth (IF), and Scott Sizemore (IF). I feel that Wells gives this team the most balance, and the best skill set off the bench, but this position is certainly not determined yet. This is the nice part about having Martinez though, we do not have to carry a full-time back-up catcher which frees up a spot on the roster elsewhere.

Discussion

The batting order is an interesting one because it is made up almost exclusively of aging veterans and young guns, there is very little in between those two extremes. The Tigers will be banking on the continued growth of several young players. They would like to see much more consistency out of Brennan Boesch (who had a monster first half last year) and Ryan Raburn (who had a monster second half last year). I actually think Will Rhymes is a nice player, and probably the best suited to hit second. Although he has little power, he showed a terrific approach in the batters box, albeit in limited action, which led to a healthy batting average (.304). Another year will hopefully also see a reduction in Austin Jackson's K-rate. Although statistically he was a very serviceable lead-off man, he whiffed an awful lot (this is mainly due to a preposterous BABIP (.396). The addition of Victor Martinez gives a legitimate power bat to protect Miguel. Both of those guys are going to have terrific years as long as the overall health of the lineup remains intact. Although all clubs worry about health over the course of a season, perhaps no team should be more concerned than the Tigers. Anything Guillen produces at this point should be considered a bonus, but Magglio has been routinely breaking down (last year ruining a terrific start to the season), and Brandon Inge has no cartilage left in either of his knees. The Tigers have a plethora of options for the outfield, but the Inge injury potential is scary. Although the Tigers have a terrific 3B prospect in Nick Castellanos, he is still several years away from the bigs. There is really no good answer at 3B if Inge goes down, which is the reason they are keeping his meager bat in the regular lineup to begin with. Overall, I would expect a noticeable step forward for the offense this year (barring calamitous health problems). We had many young players get significant experience last year, and there is no reason to not expect further growth. That, coupled with the big bat of Martinez should equate to a formidable, albeit not dominant, offense. In tight games though we always have to like our chances. Miguel Cabrera truly is one of the 3 best bats in the Majors, and I think he has a very legitimate shot at an MVP trophy this year.

Defense is a different story. This team will struggle defensively. The reason we have 3 or 4 options to play 2nd base is because none of them stand out. Guillen is broken down and the young guys are for the most part out of position at 2nd except for Sizemore who clearly needs more time in the minors. Inge will continue to make impressive plays at 3rd, but you have to wonder when all those injuries are going to start to seriously limit his range on the hot corner. Cabrera took significant strides forward in flashing the leather, and he will need to continue to do so. He is going to be facing a wide array of questionable throws to first. The outfield is awfully scary too. It's fortunate that Austin Jackson can cover roughly 90% of the outfield. Unfortunately, it is seriously doubtful that Raburn and Magglio can cover the other 10% between the two of them. Expect errors and misplayed balls and extra outs for opponents. This is a defense that will do very few favors for it's pitching staff, so lets hope that staff doesn't have to rely on them too regularly.

Projected Opening Day Pitching Staff

1. Justin Verlander RHP
2. Max Scherzer RHP
3. Rick Porcello RHP
4. Phil Coke LHP
5. Brad Penny RHP

Projected Opening Day Bullpen

1. Enrique Gonzalez*** RHP (Long Relief)
2. Brad Thomas LHP
3. Daniel Schlereth LHP
4. Joel Zumaya RHP
5. Ryan Perry RHP (7th Inning)
6. Joaquin Benoit RHP (8th Inning)
7. Jose Valverde RHP (Closer)

***This is a sheer guess. I have no idea who will have long relief duties this year.

On the outside looking in we have: Robbie Weinhardt RHP, Josh Rainwater RHP, Fu Te-Ni LHP, and Andy Oliver LHP.

Discussion

Well this pitching staff certainly seems impressive on paper. The addition of Benoit to the bullpen makes the late innings look pretty promising, and none of those 5 starters seem like liabilities. Brad Penny will need to prove that he can stay healthy a full season, but when he has been on the mound he has certainly shown he has the credentials to be a way above-average 5th starter which is what we are asking him to do. Coke is a converted bullpen guy, so that is always a bit scary, but anybody who has watched this guy pitch knows he has some really good stuff. I actually expect him to be quite solid. Porcello got off to a really terrible start last season, and was sent down to the minors. He worked on altering his mechanics mid-game, and it certainly seemed to help a great deal. His second half was very promising, and he looked like the rookie sensation that we were all excited about the year before. In other news, Verlander and Scherzer will strike out anything that moves.

It is of course impossible for me to be objective when I survey the rest of the AL Central because I desperately want the Tigers to win. However, only looking at our team I think I can safely assert that if we can stay reasonably healthy, there is no reason this team can't beat any other team. The staff and the bullpen look terrific, the offense is improved, the defense is mediocre, but overall this is a good looking team. The Twins and White Sox will of course compete, but the Twins do have to deal with a significant turnover in their bullpen and the White Sox average player age is 72. In short: GO TIGERS!