Analysis of Detroit Lions First Round Draft Options

The NFL draft is still 2 months away, but that will never deter me from (over)analyzing their possible draft strategies. In this article I solely want to analyze the options they have with their first round (#13 overall) pick.

Before I start, I have heard some lamentation by fans that we won 4 meaningless games at the end of the season that have "ruined" our draft pick. To those people I say "fuck off". We have an incredibly young team that will return primarily intact. Learning how to win against good teams (Green Bay, @ Tampa, @ Miami, Minnesota) is invaluable. Not only did we win two division games, but we also won our first two road games since the dawn of time (one against a very good young Tampa team). I know naysayers will claim we would have been blown out by Green Bay had Rodgers not been hurt. Maybe that's true. But keep in mind we were on our THIRD STRING QB. Stanton blows. And the fact of the matter was Rodgers did nothing to move the ball against us when he was in there. Our defense stood up to a terrific offense, and even with a 3rd stringer we managed to make just enough plays to beat the eventual super bowl champions. For the psyche of a young team, these wins were crucial. I honestly believe that they will instill our team with confidence to begin the 2011 season.

There are a few schools of thought on how to use a pick like this; namely, draft the best player at a position of need or draft the best player available. Before I digress into which strategy I support I will do a cursory evaluation of some players that will be available when we draft. I am making the assumption that players like Von Miller and Prince Amukamara will NOT be available at pick 13. I think that this assumption is safe, but if for some reason one of the IS available this post becomes obsolete and we should draft them immediately.

Robert Quinn- DE North Carolina
Big physical player with great outside speed. Was suspended the whole 2010 season so obviously some character questions, but from what has been printed a lot of the allegations have been proven untrue. As long as he is still in football shape he is a terrific player.

Adrian Clayborn- DE Iowa
When he's motivated he is almost impossible to stop. Serious questions about that motivation though, and obvious conditioning issues.

Ryan Kerrigan- DE Purdue
Absolutely relentless on the field. Honestly, the hardest working player I saw all last season watching college football. High character guy, but not quite as polished as some of the other DE's on this list.

Cameron Jordan- DE California
Proved to be extremely effective as a pass rusher AND at stopping the run off the edge.

Nate Solder- OT Colorado
Best OL prospect in the draft. Excellent in both run and pass protection. Will need some work, but has a pretty high ceiling as far as talent is concerned.

Brandon Harris- CB Miami
Considered by most to be the third best CB in this draft class (behind Peterson and Amukamara) but the talent differential between them and Harris is substantial. He is a very good athlete, but he is unpolished and may not be an immediate starter. Has the tools to be very good though.

Jimmy Smith- CB Colorado
Smith is a player that is rising quickly on many draft boards. Big, fast, and very physical for a CB. Has as much upside as any of the top Corners in the draft.

Julio Jones- WR Alabama
Interesting prospect for the Lions. While WR is not a primary need for the Lions, the offense could use another play-maker out there. Burleson has had an injury plagued career and even when he's healthy he is inconsistent. Jones is a ridiculously talented player that would be deadly lined up across from Calvin Johnson.

Mark Ingram- RB Alabama
Another interesting prospect from the Lions perspective. Everyone loves Jahvid Best, and deservedly so, but he has proven that even though he is a dynamic play-maker, he is not an every down between the tackles runner. Ingram would provide a punch, and they could form an impressive thunder and lightning combo.

Akeem Ayers- OLB UCLA
The second highest ranked LB in the draft behind Miller. A decent cover LB that would provide an excellent speed rush off the edge.

Discussion/Rambling
This draft is very deep on the defensive line. I have listed 4 defensive linemen in this list of 10 players. While the Lions defensive line is probably the biggest strength of the entire team, having quality depth at that position is never a bad thing. Vanden Bosch will not be along for too much longer, and getting a stud player to replace him could be invaluable. Not to mention using the drafted player as the primary backup or even moving Cliff Avril to the backup position. In any event, if the Lions were to value one of these DE's as the Best Available and take them based on that I wouldn't be upset. I firmly believe that taking the best available player is nearly always the proper move to make. The Lions have strong needs at LB, CB, and OL. Solder and Ayers are the only two viable players at #13 for OL and LB and neither jump out at me as players that could even necessarily start from day 1. At CB I find myself more impressed with what I've seen from Smith versus what I've seen from Harris. I feel like taking Harris at #13 would be a stretch. So what would I do? There is no easy answer. If the Lions were to take Kerrigan, Smith, Jordan, or Quinn I would fully endorse it. If they took Jones or Ingram I would have to grapple with it, but I think I could come around to that too (especially Jones who is freaky good). I do think reaching down for a player like Ayers or Harris is a mistake. If they are set on one of those guys, Mayhew & co. would be better suited trying to trade down in the 20s range and pick up e one of those guys + an extra 2nd rounder. The bottom line for the Lions is that they need play-makers in their back 7. With diligent evaluation they will be able to find that in later rounds, so I say they should go out and draft whoever they think is the most talented player at #13 regardless of position.